A new report by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) paints several very different pictures for farmers once the UK leaves the EU, saying that a free-trade deal could push up the cost of imports, meaning British farmers could charge more, while the “worst-case scenario” could cut average farm profits in half.
According to the report, which looked at the potential impact of the various Brexit scenarios, future trade relations with the EU and the rest of the world, the availability of migrant labour and the system of regulation, there are three different outcomes.
Looking at the worst-case scenario, without a free trade deal, UK farm incomes could fall on average from £38,000 to £15,000 and even if the UK were to impose protectionist tariffs on imports under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, average incomes could still drop to £20,000.
However, at the other end of the scale, if the UK left the EU with a deal that largely retained existing trade relations and the regulatory framework, it said there could be a slight rise in average income to £41,000.
The findings come after Prime Minister Theresa May set out details of the Government’s contingency planning to maintain the UK’s status as an “independent trading nation” if it fails to reach agreement with the EU, amid continuing deadlock in the talks in Brussels.
A spokesman for the AHDB said that with the top 25 per cent best performing farms remaining profitable under all three scenarios, the report underlined the need for farmers to adopt best practice before withdrawal in 2019, adding that the analysis underlines the fact that “performance matters”.
